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AFKI Commodities Report: Geopolitics And Lower U.S. Supplies Support Oil

AFKI Commodities Report: Geopolitics And Lower U.S. Supplies Support Oil

Thinkstock
Thinkstock

The spectre of renewed conflict with mineworker unions in South Africa reared its head – particularly if big job losses ensue- after top platinum producer Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) this week announced its intention to divest its Rustenburg mine and its Pandora joint venture asset in the country.

The company also said it is reviewing its Bokoni joint venture asset. Amplats already announced its intention to exit its Union mine and concentrators. This “repositioning of the portfolio” follows a restructuring of its pgm business that began in January 2013.

The divestment news, which was not unexpected, came amid a 88 percent plunge in the company’s first half 2014 profit to R157 million ($14.9 million) from the same year-earlier period.

Amplats attributed the profit dive to the five-month miners’ strike which ended June 24. The strike halted 40 percent of Amplats’ production, although the earnings’ result was partially mitigated by the sale of inventory during the period, the company said in a July 21 media statement.

Cocoa hits highest in 3-years, arabica at 4-weeks peak

Cocoa prices in London and New York reached three-year highs on July 23, supported by heavy trading volume. Cocoa for delivery on London’s NYSE Liffe exchange hit a contract high of £1,950 a tonne before settling at £1,938 a tonne, up £13 on the day. Cocoa futures on ICE Futures U.S. touched $3,204 a tonne before finishing a $54 up on the day at $3,185 a tonne.

Cocoa is finding support from strong Asian and North America grinding data, viewed as an indication of demand for the key chocolate-making ingredient. The Washington, DC-based National Confectioners Association said July 17 bean processing in the second quarter in North America was up 4.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the Cocoa Association of Asia said July 18 bean grinding in the region rose 5.2 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. The upbeat data went some way to offset disappointing European grind figures released earlier this month which showed a 0.7 percent decline in the second quarter compared with a year ago.

Arabica coffee prices soared to a four-week high this week after a report from a brokerage company revived concerns over the size of this season’s Brazilian arabica crop following extreme drought conditions in the south of the country earlier this year.

INTL FCStone’s CoffeeNetwork briefing indicated instances of irreversible damage following a four-day field trip to parts of the country’s leading coffee-growing state, Minas Gerais, and to the neighbouring São Paulo state last week. The report also raised concerns over the region’s 2015 harvest with rains encouraging untimely flowering, it said.

Forecasts from analysts and industry players have been variously forecasting the new Brazilian crop at somewhere between 49 and 50 million 60-kg bags. Prior to the drought, many mainstream forecasts had pegged prospective output as ranging from between 55 million and 60 million bags.

Arabica coffee for September delivery on ICE Futures U.S. surged to $1.7860 an ounce during trading on July 22 before settling at $1.7660 a pound. Arabica futures eased back to $1,7615 by close the following day.

Robusta coffee futures on NYSE Liffe were little changed with the September contract settling at $1,995 a tonne at midweek.

 

While care has been taken to ensure that the information contained in this report is accurate, it is supplied without guarantee. The author can accept no responsibility for any errors or any consequence arising from the information provided.