This has led to a renewed effort to develop other sectors and, as a consequence, tourism, finance, and a light manufacturing sector aimed at servicing the large South African consumer market just over the border is beginning to develop. Also important, the cattle business – long part of traditional Botswanan society, remains an important part of the economy.

Combined with prudent macroeconomic policies that have kept both government debt in check and inflation at bay, things certainly look bright in this southern African country. There are, however, a few dark spots on the horizon that are worth discussion and which, if left to fester, could potentially cause significant problems for Botswana going forward. These problems are its geography, environment, and present near-total dependence on diamonds.

First, in terms of its geography, a quick reading of the significant shipping costs associated with engaging in cross-border trade in Botswana discussed above highlight the problems associated with growing a landlocked economy. Fortunately, Botswana has benefited from having its principal population center – the capital, Gaborone – situated just across the border and a short distance away from the South African cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria.

While Botswana benefits from South Africa’s markets and transport infrastructure, it is also ultimately very dependent upon what goes on its southern neighbor – in a way very much like the relationship that exists between Canada and the United States.

Unlike Canada, however, Botswana has no access to the sea independent of South Africa and is surrounded on its east, west, and north with much less stable states with far less developed infrastructure and which that pose significant national security risks.

The economic and political chaos in neighboring Zimbabwe, for instance, has led to an increase in illegal immigration from that country. Botswana, therefore, is very vulnerable to both political and economic changes in its immediate neighborhood – especially in South Africa.

Second, Botswana’s fragile ecology also has the potential to hurt economic growth or political stability in the future. The Kalahari Desert, for instance, covers a vast swath of the country’s northern regions and is widely considered to be an ecological treasure. Human encroachment, however, has led to problems with poaching of endangered wildlife  while cattle ranching and other human activities has increased the rate at which desertification – the transformation of productive pasture land to unproductive desert – is taking place.

In the future these trends will likely only get worse as global-warming induced climate change put increased pressure on the country’s environment and water resources.

Finally, even though Botswana’s prosperity and small population has allowed the country to establish itself as one with a respectable standard of living, much of this is dependent upon economic rents produced from the country’s diamond-mining and mineral-extraction operations.

The country’s diamond reserves, though ably managed by the government, could begin to become exhausted as early as the 2030s – only sixteen years away. In turn this could put immense pressure on the economy and force the government to significantly cut back on its provision of social services – one of the most extensive such systems in all of Africa.

Still, the existence of a strong civil society, long-history of democracy, and a tradition of social cohesion and consensus seeking in the country should allow Botswana to weather these problems. There will be challenges, to be sure, but with nearly fifty years of progress behind them, the citizen of Botswana are likely to find that their future, like their diamonds, will be as glittering as their past.

 

Jeffrey Cavanaugh holds a Ph.D. in political science with a specialization in international relations from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Formerly an assistant professor of political science and public administration at Mississippi State University, he writes on global affairs and international economics for AFK Insider, Mint Press News and BAM South.