Kenya’s next presidential election is more than a year away, scheduled for Aug. 8, 2017, but the country is already seeing political turmoil, economic ramifications, and societal unrest. Kenyan citizens and international observers are monitoring the situation.
Sources: SaharaReporters.com, NYTimes.com, TimesLive.co.za, The-Star.co.ke, ChannelNewsAsia.com, Bloomberg.com
Odinga, the leader of Kenya’s largest opposition party CORD (Coalition for Reforms and Democracy), is Kenyatta’s main opposition in the 2017 vote. He lost the 2013 election amid allegations of corruption and vote rigging, and has been pushing for top electoral officials to resign over the controversy.
Neither frontrunner has formally launched a campaign for the 2017 election, but both have been positioning themselves for the upcoming contest. The two candidates’ parties, Jubilee and CORD, have been battling for weeks in Parliament over election protocols.
The Kenyatta-Odinga rivalry goes back over half a century when the candidates’ fathers battled for the first post-independence presidency. Jomo Kenyatta eventually won the contest, and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s followers still feel a perceived injustice today, turning their support to the son.
Members of Kenya’s opposition want reforms in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the branch of government that monitors and manages elections. They demanded personnel changes, citing a lack of trust and claiming that IEBC supports Kenyatta, and may have rigged the 2013 vote.
Last week, President Kenyatta said he would form a committee with representatives of both houses of Parliament, to “strictly and exclusively” discuss the IEBC controversy. Each party will send two representatives to the committee.
Source: SaharaReporters.com
The opposition party released a list of nine demands before agreeing to the committee talks Kenyatta proposed. Among the demands, CORD wished to limit the representatives of each coalition to seven, create joint chairs for the negotiating teams with a representative from both Jubilee and CORD, limit the negotiations to four weeks, and not subject the final resolution to a Parliamentary vote.
At least five people died and an unconfirmed number were injured – including a 5-year-old boy shot in the back last week – since protests began over the IEBC controversy. Police have fired into crowds of protestors throwing rocks and setting fires, and the conflict shows no signs of stopping.
Following the death of protestors, Interior Secretary Joseph Nkaissery announced that demonstrations would be outlawed in the country. This goes against Kenya’s constitution. CORD supporters plan to challenge the decision in the Supreme Court.
The Kenyan constitution, rewritten in 2010, says “every person has the right, peacefully and unarmed, to assemble, to demonstrate and to present petitions to public authorities.” The Kenyatta administration has the authority to ban protests if it declares a state of emergency. CORD supporters say the ban is unconstitutional.
Source: TimesLive.co.za
While Kenya’s economy benefited in recent months from low oil prices and a stable exchange rate, tourism — a key sector of the economy — historically decreases in election years. Protests and a legacy of electoral strife like deadly violence after the 2007 election scares away tourists. The current conflict is forcing businesses to close on a weekly basis. In Nairobi, many businesses close each week on what is now known as “Teargas Monday,” costing an estimated $5 million in lost profits each day.
Along with the presidency and dozens of Parliament seats, at stake are 47 governorships in the 2017 election. Governor wannabes are especially motivated, as they have large executive powers and larger budgets. They will also be in position for 2022 election. If Kenyatta is re-elected in 2017, he’ll reach his term limits by the 2022 election, creating an open field.
In 2013, there was a perceived threat that anybody thought to be provoking post-election violence would be hauled before the International Criminal Court. ICC cases have since collapsed against Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, for orchestrating violence in 2007.