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South Africa’s Reserve Bank Caught Between Rate Rise And Economy Support

South Africa’s Reserve Bank Caught Between Rate Rise And Economy Support

South Africa’s Reserve Bank is caught in a dilemma between rising interest rates in a shrinking economy or leaving it on hold for a while, or until a crippling platinum mine workers strike ends, to support the country’s struggling economy.

Bloomberg reported the Reserve Bank Deputy Governor, Daniel Mminele, saying that the country was considering hiking rates even as Africa’s second largest economy faced a greater threat of falling into a full blown recession.

South Africa’s growth has been hit by a four-month wage strike by more than 70,000 workers at the world’s three largest platinum producers, while inflation rose to 6.1 percent in April beyond the central bank’s 3-6 percent target band.

Mminele said that the country has defiantly entered “a rate hiking cycle” and interest rates needed to “normalize”.

A its rate setting meeting last week on Thursday the central bank held its key repurchase rate at 5.5 percent for second consecutive meeting. South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.6 percent in the three months through March, the first decline since a 2009 recession.

“While there is a risk that we could fall into what is termed a technical recession if we have another quarter of negative growth, it’s not a foregone conclusion,” Mminele said. “The risk certainly exists given that the setting hasn’t improved much. The situation has not improved much in the sense that (miners) strikes in the platinum sector is obviously still upon us.”