It’s now been three weeks since more than 200 girls (exact figures still unknown) were kidnapped from their school in Chibok, Borno state in northern Nigeria sparking #BringBackOurGirls protests in various parts of the world, with several Hollywood celebrities supporting the movement. The unfolding events indicate that this is probably the last chance for Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Jonathan, to prove he is in control and has sufficient machinery, personnel, intel and logistics to continue to perform his functions as the number one security officer of Africa’s largest economy.
Two days ago, Jonathan addressed matters in a presidential media chat that was aired live on several local and foreign channels including BBC and CNN. Yesterday, May 5, Boko Haram insurgency group said it kidnapped the girls and in a video, Shekau, the group’s leader said the girls are being treated as slaves — and would be sold as such. Shekau also said that some had already been sold.
To complement efforts of Nigerian security officers and intelligence agencies, Jonathan said his administration is talking to foreign governments including the U.S., United Kingdom, Canada and China for technical support. He also called on these nations to assist Nigeria with troops to tackle the militants heads-on. Specifically, he said he has spoken with U.S. President Barack Obama twice.
AFKInsider spoke to three locals in Nigeria – Henry Rotimi Oshowo, Mary Ehigie and Oluwa Tosin on the situation, their perception of the president’s actions, ways out of the present hiatus, international perception of the crisis in Nigeria and the impact the present situation could have on the president’s second term bid at next year’s general elections.
Politics, Military and Citizens’ involvement
Oshowo described the case of the missing girls as unfortunate and the epitome of the failure of Nigeria’s ruling class and military.
“Politics has been introduced into the security of lives of Nigerians which is absurd. We don’t play politics with issues of national security. I remember during the Kenya shopping mail attack, Kenya’s political classes were all united and they spoke in the same voice in condemning the act. I cannot remember the Kenyan opposition criticizing the party in power,” he said.
According to him, the military seems to be benefitting from the chaos since the men of the Nigerian armed forces are capable of ending the insurgency.
“Honestly, I know if truly they want to end this insurgency, the Nigeria military would have ended it before now. They are benefiting from the entire game,” he told AFKInsider.
In addition to the military and politicians, Tosin added that citizens also made the situation complex.
“I don’t believe 200 girls will go missing without one or two citizens having useful information that can lead to their recovery. Whether the citizens are not doing enough to help the security forces or the security forces know what they need to know and they are not acting on it…is what I don’t know,” he said.
“The Boston marathon bomber was captured because someone provided useful whereabouts information. This may not necessarily be applicable to Nigeria because of the peculiarity of our situation and systems. But I’m just saying, it should be our ideal target.”
Presidential Action
On how the president is dealing with the situation, respondents said the president’s second term ambition is hindering him from full action.
Ehigie said: “I think the president is trying to play safe because of his ambition for next year.
Oshowo said: “With the 2015 election around the corner, I fear Mr. President’s interest is his ambition first.”
Tosin added that the president is not yet showing the right ‘body language’.
“He needs to show the right body language…he needs to be more decisive, more brutal in his approach —even if it will hurt his 2015 ambitions. For reasons best known to him, he appears not to be ultimately concerned about recent developments in some parts of the North,” Tosin told AFKInsider.
International Perceptions and involvement
On how the security situation would be viewed internationally, Oshowo said, “it would portrait Nigeria as unsafe for investors. It would also place Nigeria alongside Afghanistan and other Middle East countries where [girls and] education is suffering injustice from the insurgent.”
He added that other countries can play important roles in resolving the situation and secure the safe release of the girls.
“The European Union and USA can come in the area of anti-terrorism [and] sophisticated gadgets, but more importantly we need the strong cooperation of the Chadian, Cameroonian and Nigerien governments to finish this insurgency. In the rescue mission of the young girls, a joint multinational force including the UN forces is very important.”
Ehigie called for the declaration of a total state of emergency.
“I want the military to be empowered so that they can take full responsibility of the security in those areas,” she said. “We need an intelligence team that’s the only way out so we can map out strategic steps to tackle terrorism.”
While the president is putting much emphasis on the U.S. government, Tosin said the crisis in Nigeria has not yet threatened America’s interests in Nigeria.
“American interest has not been badly jeopardized yet, I believe. Moreover, the current [U.S.] administration is being economical with military assistance. I don’t see the U.S. sending in troops anytime soon,” Tosin said.
Instead of waiting for foreign governments to help Nigeria out, Tosin said that Nigeria is a sovereign with a military that is capable of dealing with the situation.
“When the anti-gay law was passed, we wanted to be sovereign. To be really sovereign, act sovereign. I believe Nigeria has military might to handle the issue. Political and religious interests appear to be big stumbling blocks,” he said.
“Damn the consequences and launch an all-out military attack. Take Shekau down, take Boko Haram down. I believe the President knows this, but with so many vested interests, hence the delay, the I-don’t-care attitude. It’s easier said than done.”
Fate of the Girls
On the fate of the girls, Tosin said he doesn’t think Boko Haram plans to kill them.
“Some of them escaped. Anyway, Shekau said he’s selling them outside the country I guess. Best case scenario, they are all recovered needing immediate medical and psychological attention. Worst case scenario, they’re sold outside the country and are difficult to recover…and this goes on for a long while. I don’t think Boko Haram will kill them,” Tosin said.
“This case is dragging because we know they were abducted, not killed. Boko Haram has killed school children in the North before; that was the end of it. If Boko Haram wanted to kill them, they would have, probably from the onset. Plus Shekau specifically said he’s selling them. Seems the abduction is embarrassing the government more than killing would have.”
Oshowo had an entirely different opinion:
“with the record of the Boko Haram sect molesting women and turning them into sex slaves, I am afraid the fate of these innocent girls will not be far from it.”
President Jonathan’s Chances at the Polls
Even though she said she has little hope that the girls would soon be found — due to lack of coherent and proactive strategy by both government and the military — Ehigie said she could still vote for the president next year. He effort would be for the sake of continuity of major projects such as the ongoing transformation of Nigeria’s power sector, which the president said is still in its early phase.
Tosin said his decision to vote for the president or not would be made when he sees who the opposition party would be presenting:
“Depends on who else is running. The considerable ones don’t become president in Nigeria. I will have to make a pick from the contestants.”