Nigeria Q1 Performance Worst In Major African Stock Exchanges

Nigeria Q1 Performance Worst In Major African Stock Exchanges

Analysts blame investor confidence, market-distorting activities and sell down by foreign and institutional investors for Nigeria’s poor stock market performance in the first quarter of 2014.

And it would have been a lot worse if not for Dangote Cement.

Nigeria performed worst among major African markets, and was third worst for returns — down 6.2 percent — compared to other global markets, according to BusinessDay.

However when compared with the first quarter of 2013, the Nigerian market was up 19.4 in returns in the first quarter of 2014.

Money managers said they expected Nigeria’s dismal performance, BusinessDay reports.

“Q1 2014 returns for each sector shows that the entire market would have faired much worse, with a much widened negative return, had Dangote Cement not recorded a positive return in the period,”said Tola Odukoya, managing director of Dunn Loren Merrifield Asset Management & Research Co.

Odukoya said Nigeria’s negative market returns in the first quarter were driven by strong negative double-digit returns in oil and gas; food and beverages; personal and household goods, banks, chemical and other financial services.

“While single-digit positive returns were recorded in construction and materials, real estate, industrial goods and services and health care … the double-digit negative returns eroded gains from the single-digit positive returns, resulting in a negative total return for the entire market in Q1 2014,” Odukoya told BusinessDay.

Here’s how other African stock markets fared in the first three months of 2014, according to BusinessDay trendwatch:

Apart from Nigeria (-6.2 percent) and Mauritius (-0.38 percent), Egypt, despite its political turmoil, grew by 15 percent. Ghana grew by 11.2 percent. Zambia grew by 9.7 percent, Kenya grew by 5.6 percent, and South Africa grew by 3.3 percent.

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Beyond African markets, Nigeria did better than China and Russia. With its negative 6.2 percent in returns, Nigeria’s stock market benchmark performance indicator — the All Share Index (ASI) — was better than the China – SHSZ 300 Index which was down 7.9 percent; while the Russia– MICEX Index was the worst-performing stock market, with a negative return of 9 percent, BusinessDay reports.

BusinessDay compared returns in other markets: Kenya – NSE 20 was up by 0.4 percent; Egypt – EGX 30 rose by 15.1 percent; South Africa – JSE ASI was up by 3.3 percent; Malaysia – FBMEMAS Index was down by 0.4 percent; and Indonesia – Jakarta Composite Index was up by 11.6 percent.

Other markets show that Turkey – Borsa Instanbul 100 Index rose by 2.9 percent; Mongolia – MSE Index remained flat at 0.0 percent; South Korea – KOSPI index was minus 1.3 percent; Pakistan – KSE Index was up 9.3 percent; Brazil – BOVESPA Index was minus 2.1 percent; while India – NIFTY Index was up by 6.3 percent. In addition, the S&P 500 was high at 1.30 percent while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped
by 0.7 percent.

Compared with the first quarter of 2013, the Nigerian market was up 19.4 in returns in the first quarter of 2014.

Equity analysts at CBO Capital said, “the effects are bigger than a mere correction, which analysts predicted.

“Outflow of portfolio capital is also largely responsible. Excluding earnings release, investor confidence dropped precipitously due to market-distorting activities in the polity and external impact, known as the Quantitative Easing (QE) tapering effect.”

CBO Capital analysts said, “The NSE was bearish in the quarter. This trend persisted despite the release of year-end results by most companies. This could have been because there were no positive earnings surprises.”

Investment analysts at Partnership Investment Company attributed the stock market decline to several factors. “The stoppage of the quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve had resulted in funds outflow from emerging markets, due to improvement in U.S. economic indicators. Also, the liquidity tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria, as well as the unceremonious removal of the CBN governor, resulted in uncertainty and the withdrawal of funds by foreign portfolio investors.”