Elections in Africa this year could determine the economic development of a handful of countries, and investors will be watching closely, according to an opinion piece in in VenturesAfrica.
The following five elections are the biggest ones to watch, says Kurt Davis Jr., a private equity investor and early-business consultant with experience in Africa, Asia, Europe and U.S.
The most far-reaching of Africa’s elections this year could be on May 7 in South Africa. The African National Congress led by President Jacob Zuma is poised to win after 20 years of democracy in the country.
An alignment between Mamphela Ramphele — life partner to the late Steve Biko — and the mostly white Democratic Alliance (DA) temporarily gave credibility to the DA by linking it to the new Agang party. The allignment didn’t last long, dashing hopes among ANC critics that a legitimate opposition party had arrived, Davis said.
Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters could erode ANC support. Africa’s largest economy has seen high unemployment, allegations of government corruption, poor economic growth and repeated mining strikes. These boost the EFF’s youth support, especially those born after the end of apartheid are less attached to the ANC. Malema’s call for nationalization feeds feelings of inequality but bodes poorly for attracting numbers large enough to defeat the ANC, Davis said.
Prediction: The incumbent wins.
The buzz is about the potential re-entry into the national election of the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) led by Afonso Dhlakama. A statement by Dhlakama in October indicated that the capture of its base by Mozambican Armed Forces meant an end to the 1992 peace deal with the governing Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo). Clashes in the north between Renamo and Frelimo put further doubt on the potential of Renamo’s political re-entry before the presidential elections, Davis said.
But what’s really making a political stir at the voting booth, Davis said is the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) led by Beira mayor Daviz Simango. He did well in municipal elections, winning Gurue in February in a runoff with earlier victories in the three major cities of Nampula, Beira and Quelimane. Frelimo, led by Mozambique’s President Armando Guebuza, faced off a strong challenge in Maputo from MDM and kept control in most of the country’s 53 municipalities. Results however confirm that public frustration with security, kidnappings, and lack of substantial returns from mining investment is boosting MDM support.
Guebuza cannot run for a third term, according to the copnstitution. The Frelimo Central Committee elected Filipe Jacinto Nyussi, the Minister of Defense, as the party’s presidential candidate by a two-thirds margin after an internal debate in which Guebuza loyalists staved off a push from a rival group backing former Prime Minister (and ex-Finance Minister) Luisa Diogo. The rival group was led by former President Joaquim Chissano and Graca Machel, wife of late President Samora Machel. She is also the widow of former South Africa President Nelson Mandela.
Mozambicans posting on Facebook and Twitter show dissatisfaction with Frelimo’s presidential candidate selection, giving hope to Democratic Movement of Mozambique, Davis said. Some analysts suggest Renamo’s re-entry into the election could split the opposition vote and boost Frelimo’s chance for a victory.
Prediction: Minister of Defense Filipe Jacinto Nyussi wins. Renamo’s re-entry into the political process takes some votes from MDM’s base.
The rocky road to a new constitution and presidential election is lined with persistent protesters, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood who supported former President Muhammad Morsi. A majority of the country likely supported the recent military leadership, but with a media clampdown, mass arrests and the apparent return of the former security apparatus under former President Hosni Mubarak, both sides are suspicious about military involvement in government going forward. The sudden resignation by the caretaker government promoted more suspicions and speculations.
Recent news that a new presidential election could involve General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the army chief who led the coup, adds to the fuel. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist Nour party both suspect the military wants to assume the role (and accompanying dictatorial control) of former President Hosni Mubarak, Davis said.
Prediction: A bold entry and carefully constructed campaign by General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi could be hard for anyone to overcome.
While a date hasn’t been set for general elections in 2014, the election will represent a success story in a rather extended Arab Spring, Davis said. The ability of Tunisian politicians to find compromise in a world of zero-sum politics has been nothing but impressive. The transition to a new constitution and new elections did not come without casualties—the previous coalition government led by Ennahda, Tunisia’s main Islamist party, only resigned after two assassinations of opposition politicians and subsequent protests.
The Tunisian Constitution be tested when there is a newly elected government required to put it into action. But the approval of an article in the constitution to work towards equal representation of women in all elected bodies is a sign that politicians are making their best efforts to move the country forward. An active social media scene has also been remarkably impressive. The youth suffered greatly before the Arab Spring and afterwards. High unemployment, rising food prices and slacking public services (particularly health services) imply a long road ahead. But if the government continues with public voting and supports youth participation, the road forward will be easier for whoever wins in 2014.
Prediction: This is like predicting a draft two years before any player declares eligibility. If anything, expect major shifts in the polls up to the election.
Nigeria’s presidential election is set for 2015, but 2014 is the year to watch Africa’s second-largest economy. Politicking and campaigning have already begun for the two major parties — People’s Democratic Party and All Progressives Congress.
Security concerns over al-Qaeda-linked Boko Haram in Northern Nigerian dog the current administration. Government crackdowns have slowed attacks, but many Nigerians and foreign investors wonder if this is temporary as election year draws closer, VenturesAfrica reports.
Former president Olusegun Obasanjo has criticized President Goodluck Jonathan for failing to confront piracy, oil theft, kidnapping and corruption. Jonathan’s recent suspension of central bank governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi raised concerns. Well respected for tackling the banking collapse in 2009, Sanusi was ousted after claiming that government-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company failed to pay $20 billion to government coffers. Allegations emerged of financial misappropriation by Sanusi but the suspension has drawn criticism from a significant number of Nigeria’s over 170 million population.
Prediction: Jonathan will remain the man to beat.
