Depending on who’s talking, Bitcoin and crypto prices could swing sharply by midweek — in either direction — or they could be stuck in the bear market another two-to-three months max, or longer.
Justin Bennett, a Forex trader and crypto analyst, predicted that the quiet period of low volatility for crypto is about to end with a massive breakout in Bitcoin and altcoins expected by Oct. 19.
Bennet evaluated the total altcoin market capitalization, noting that it is “coiling inside a four-month terminal pattern after a recovery on Thursday,” FXStreet reported.
Bennett has accurately timed breakouts in Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins in the top 30 in the past, Ekta Mourya reported for FXStreet. Bitcoin has been trading recently in the $19,000 to $24,000 range. This prediction implies that it could see a spike or lose its key support at $19,000 and decline.
“I’m a trader, so I respect the charts. Period. Bitcoin can break higher, lower, or continue to go sideways. There will be opportunities regardless” Bennett said in a tweet.
Multiple analysts have focused on Bitcoin’s range-bound price action, leading some to question whether this is a sign of a market bottom or even a decoupling from equities markets, Ray Salmond wrote for Cointelegraph.
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In a range-bound market, the price bounces up and down between a high price and a low. The low price acts as support, and the price can’t seem to break through it. The high price acts as resistance, and again, price can’t seem to find a way through that higher boundary, according to Decryptopedia. The market movement is ranging or going sideways for an extended period.
The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 stock index has reached new highs in 2022 and both are having a bumpy ride. The correlation between cryptocurrencies and the tech stock index Nasdaq Composite has been even higher.
“While it’s too early to conclude that BTC has broken its correlation with equities markets or even reached a market bottom, historical data suggests that long bouts of sideways price action have marked accumulation and distribution phases,” Salmond wrote.
Philip Swift, the popular on-chain analyst whose data resource, LookIntoBitcoin, tracks Bitcoin market indicators, predicted that most of the bear market is already likely behind Bitcoin. Key metrics indicate that Bitcoin is at major cycle lows, Swift said in an interview with Cointelegraph.
“I believe we are now at the point of maximum opportunity for Bitcoin,” Swift said. “We are seeing the percentage of long-term holders peak (1yr HODL Wave), which typically happens in the depths of bear market as these long-term holders don’t want to take profit until price moves higher. This has the effect of restricting available supply in the market, which can cause price to increase when demand does eventually kick back in.”
The current bear market feels pretty similar to the 2018-2019 one, Swift said. “All the tourists have left and you just have the committed passionate crypto people remaining in the space. These people will benefit the most in the next bull run — as long as they don’t go crazy trading with leverage.”
Glassnode analyzed coin distribution among long- and short-term holders, and concluded that sellers are likely exhausted and that more than 31 percent of the coins held by long-term holders are being held at a loss.