Economists agree that high inflation, rising interest rates, uncertainty and market volatility have increased the likelihood that the U.S. economy will be hit with a recession.

When President Joe Biden said that there was “nothing inevitable about a recession,” former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers disagreed, saying that a recession was “almost inevitable” in the next two years.

Economist and conservative TV commentator Stephen Moore disagreed with both of them, warning that the U.S. is already in a recession — a “soft” one.

Biden raised questions of credibility when he encouraged Americans to be patient and not believe what economists are saying. “They shouldn’t believe a warning,” Biden said during a Thursday, June 16 interview in the Oval Office with the Associated Press.

Here’s what five economists, analysts and strategists are saying about the probability of recession in the U.S., according to a New York Times report.

Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo bank

A recession in 2023 “seems more likely than not,” wrote Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo. His forecast is for the economy to shrink 1 percent during half of 2023. He predicts it will be “one of the milder downturns in the post-W.W. II era,” similar to the recession in the early 1990s.

On the plus side, Bryson wrote, “Because we think the downturn will not be especially deep, we do not expect the labor market to fall completely apart.”

Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank

Months ago, economists at Germany’s Deutsche Bank forecast that the U.S. economy would be in a recession by the end of 2023, but now the team led by Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist, said they expect “an earlier and somewhat more severe recession”. They expect the economy to shrink by half a percent in 2023.

Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings

Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, one of the top authorities on the fiscal health of public and private institutions, put the probability of a recession at 40 percent. “It’s hard to see the economy walking out of 2023 unscathed,” according to Bovino. However, she wrote that “economic momentum will likely protect the U.S. economy from recession in 2022.”

Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley

While “accelerating inflation has been a common precursor to recessions,” Ellen Zentner, the chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley puts the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at about 30 percent, according to the bank’s models.

Daniel Bachman, head of U.S. economic forecasting at Deloitte

Daniel Bachman, who runs the U.S. economic forecasting team at the consulting firm Deloitte, said the chance of a recession is about 15 percent — “less likely than some analysts would have you believe.”

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