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Bitcoin prices have always been volatile with drastic upswings and deep lows. Since reaching its all-time high of $68,700 in November 2021, the No. 1 cryptocurrency is down by around 45 percent. In the 24 hours between Jan. 20 and Jan. 21, Bitcoin took a 10.4 percent hit, according to CoinGecko.
So how bad could it get?
Worst-case scenario, Bitcoin could take an 80-percent to 90-percent haircut, said Darius Dale, founder and CEO of investment research firm 42 Macro.
Dale was interviewed on the podcast “The Best Business Show with Anthony Pompliano.” The episode was live-streamed on Jan. 20.
“At the worst you know 85-90 drawdowns in Bitcoin, you know when over kind of 10-12 years of its life cycle,” said Dale, who will become a weekly contributor to the podcast.
A haircut refers to the lower-than-market value placed on an asset being used as collateral for a loan, according to Investopedia.
But Bitcoin investors shouldn’t panic, Dale said.
“I would argue, no right we’re already down a third from the November highs and so in my opinion I think losing that much more from here — it’s possible but I think it’s more likely that bitcoin doubles the rate of its decline to its ultimate nadir,” Dale said.
“Bitcoin tends to lose about 75 to 85 percent of its value relative to treasury bonds, not just cash,” he added.
Dale also made several points about inflation.
“Our forecasts are calling for inflation to peak out in this December, January time frame and eventually start to roll off that peak and decelerate,” he said. “I’ll caveat that by saying inflation is likely to remain very elevated relative to historical patterns and historical norms.”
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