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2014 Investment Trends For South Africa

2014 Investment Trends For South Africa

Investing in South Africa in 2014 — and managing those investments — will continue to be affected by both the talk and actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve, according to a report in iAfrica.

It will be difficult for investment managers in emerging markets to sidestep quantitative easing, said Johan van der Merwe, head of Sanlam Investments, a financial services company headquartered in Cape Town.

Quantitative easing is considered when short-term interest rates are at or approaching zero, and does not involve the printing of new banknotes, according to Investopedia. It’s an unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to lower interest rates and increase the money supply. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced a tapering of some of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies in June, contingent on continued positive economic data. He said the Fed could scale back its bond purchases from $85 billion to $65 billion a month.

“We know that quantitative easing tapering is on the table and have already witnessed the ripple effect of its announcement on emerging markets,” van der Merwe told iAfrica. “But we are limited with regard to the steps we can take to mitigate the inevitable fallout.”

So is it possible to soften the blow as global markets transition from a period of “Fed speak” to one of “Fed action”?

Van der Merwe identified three trends that he said South African investment managers can leverage over the next few years.

The first is that South Africa is behind the international curve where passive investments are concerned.

Also known as a buy-and-hold or couch-potato strategy, passive investing involved limited ongoing buying and selling. Passive investors will purchase investments with the intention of long-term appreciation and limited maintenance, according to Investopedia.

“Passive investment will continue to take off locally, especially in a low income-and-return environment where the cost of managing funds becomes an issue,” he told iAfrica.

The second trend, van der Merwe said, is the rise of the financial services consumer and the potential for investment managers to tap into a more savvy retail investor. Sanlam is optimistic about the retail segment as South Africa addresses its lackluster savings culture, according to iAfrica.

But he warned investment managers must tread carefully in the retail space in order to comply with South Africa’s stringent pro-consumer financial regulations.

“While investment managers are not subject to the strict capital requirements that banks and insurers are, there is a massive obligation on us to ensure compliance with pro-consumer regulation such as the pending Treating Customers Fairly regime,” Van der Merwe said.

The third and perhaps most lucrative trend is that Africa is once again “top of mind” for international investors, van der Merwe told iAfrica. Sanlam does business in 14 African countries.