Vaccines alone will not be enough to end the pandemic or stop millions of covid-19 infections in the U.S. unless people continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing until midsummer or later, according to a new model by scientists at Columbia University.
A year after the first known U.S. case of the disease, reported coronavirus infections have topped 25,862,984 with more than 431,397 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
An array of vaccines released in December lifted hopes across the world that the pandemic could be coming to an end, but the Columbia University model shows that precautions put in place must continue for covid-19 to be completely wiped out.
“If we start thinking, ‘We’ve got a vaccine, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, we can stop in a couple of months’ — that’s way too soon,” said Dr Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University.
The model estimated that more than 105 million people in the U.S. — a third of the population — have already been infected so far. That’s four times more than the reported 25-million cases. Millions more could be infected before the vaccine is fully rolled out.
If current restrictions remain in place until late July, the Columbia model shows a projected U.S. infection rate of 158 million people. That figure could increase by 29 million if restrictions are eased by February or cut back by 19 million if restrictions are strengthened until late July.
If restrictions are lifted by mid-March the total infections could rise by 6 million more people.
Dr. Shaman’s team said that in some areas such as North Dakota, where the pandemic has run amok, the vaccine will do little to slow down coronavirus and it will most likely die out on its own.
In Vermont, where just 10 percent of the population has been infected, the vaccine could help protect nearly the entire population.
Scientists say that in the long-term, the coronavirus could become a much milder illness and cause fewer deaths, but for now, vaccination and surveillance are critical to end the pandemic.
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“My guess is, enough people will get it and enough people will get the vaccine to reduce person-to-person transmission,” said Dr. Paul Duprex, director of the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Vaccine Research, in a National Geographic interview.
“There will be pockets of people who won’t take (the vaccines), there will be localized outbreaks, but it will become one of the ‘regular’ coronaviruses.”
Named for the crown-like spikes on their surface, there are seven human coronaviruses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The best-known coronaviruses are:
