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South Africa’s Q3 Current Account Deficit Biggest In Five Years

South Africa’s Q3 Current Account Deficit Biggest In Five Years

South Africa’s current account deficit widened in the third quarter to its biggest in five years despite positive revisions to trade numbers, increasing the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks, Reuters reported.

Overall spending growth slowed in the quarter, with households constrained by stricter lending and the effect of labor strikes on wages, reducing hopes of a consumer-driven economic recovery in 2013.

Analysts said South Africa was among the most exposed of the so-called ‘fragile five’ economies, which also include India, Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil, with a poor growth outlook and not enough reserves to defend its currency.

The more than expected increases in current account deficit pushed the South African rand down on Tuesday as much as 1.2 percent to its weakest level against the dollar in three weeks, Reuters said in its currency report.

The yawning deficit and South Africa’s relatively small reserves and weak growth outlook leave the rand exposed. The spectre of Fed ‘tapering’ has also helped knock the currency about 20 percent lower versus the dollar this year.

South Africa’s strong demand for imports came at a higher price in the third quarter because of the weak rand exchange rate, which worsened the terms of trade for Africa’s biggest economy.

The current account deficit expanded to 6.8 percent of GDP from a revised 5.9 percent in the second quarter, the largest deficit seen since 2008, the South African Reserve Bank said in its December Quarterly Bulletin on Tuesday.

The Bank had previously reported a 6.5 percent gap in the second quarter. That shortfall dropped after the revenue service included trade with neighbors Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, with which South Africa runs a large surplus.

‘This quarter’s deficit is essentially a stronger deterioration than any seen,’ said Anisha Arora of 4Cast, adding that the deficit would remain volatile well into next year.

Excluding trade with neighboring countries, the deficit would have been more than 7 percent, bank officials said. The highest deficit in South Africa’s recent history was in the third quarter of 2008 when the gap rose to 7.8 percent of GDP.