As frontier markets, the countries of Africa represent tremendous opportunities and tremendous risks. On the risk side of the ledger are all the usual complications of international trade and investment compounded by the problems inherent in a developing, emergent continental market consisting of 54 countries and 1.1 billion people – it’s a lot to keep track of.

Luckily, the ups and downs of the African currency markets aren’t one of them if you know where to look. To help with that, AFKInsider has compiled news you need to know now in order to slim down your currency risk. Let’s see what’s happening out there.

The big news of late has been the abruptly issued policy change on currency devaluation that was recently announced and then rescinded by the Central Bank of South Sudan. The drama began on Nov. 11 when the bank governor, Kornelio Mayiik, announced unilaterally that the young country’s new currency would be devalued by about a third.

Chaos and panic were, of course, the natural result. Prices for everything shot up and the weak currency – already losing value on the black market – crumbled even further. Quite suddenly, South Sudanese found fuel stations running out and even ordinary consumer staples disappearing from market stalls and shop shelves. Political pressure quickly forced Mayiik to reverse himself. It remains to be seen whether the bank governor – faced with what is in all respects an impossible task – will retain his job for long.

Economic unrest in South Sudan is matched by equally unsettling trends to the north, from which South Sudan recently became independent. Like its southern offspring, North Sudan is experiencing widespread turmoil as its oil-driven economy – now shorn of most of its oil due to South Sudan’s successful bid for independence – spirals out of control. North Sudan’s currency has, like its southern neighbor, collapsed in value, putting immense strain on economic activity and increasingly making Khartoum unable to finance hard-currency imports of foods, machinery and nearly everything else a quasi-modern country like Sudan needs.

So what is behind the twin economic disasters in these two important countries of East-Central Africa? What’s more, what is the prospect for resumption of economic stability in both North and South Sudan and, accordingly, economic growth?

To answer the first question, one should understand that the Sudans’ problems stem from two factors. The first is the still-unresolved nature of their political relations with each other, especially when it comes to ongoing territorial disputes over strategically important and oil-rich lands along their new international border. Throw in the fact that the peace deal between the two parts of what used to be a united country was predicated on South Sudan using export facilities in the north to ship its oil to global markets, and you have the makings of a sticky problem that does not look likely to be resolved soon.

Even more problematic, the festering conflict between North and South Sudan is made worse by the increasingly not-so-veiled competition between the U.S. and China to control both South Sudan and the rump north. China, of course, sources a large chunk of its oil imports from Sudanese fields while the U.S., pushed by anti-Islamist politicians, has long made the fate of ostensibly Christian South Sudan a cause célèbre among dedicated culture-cum-civilizational Cold Warriors in America’s capital city. That South Sudanese independence also deprives China of hard-won oil concessions in the south, well, these folks must calculate, so much the better.

All this in turn makes the likelihood of a stable peace between Khartoum and Juba very unlikely. So, if you are an arms dealer, rest assured that both countries will remain a lucrative market for some time to come. That is, of course, if both countries will be able to afford the top-notch prices on tanks, artillery, combat aircraft, and small arms in the future without assistance from Chinese or American military assistance programs and spy agencies.

That’s because the value of the commodity upon which both are dependent for their economic lifeblood – oil – is itself going through something of a transformation. Much as Nigeria has been hurt by the decline in global oil prices from their record highs just prior to the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007-2008, other oil producers, including the Sudans, are being similarly hard hit. Add developments in U.S. oil shale production from the introduction of hydraulic fracturing technology, a decline in driving in both the U.S. and Europe, and the expansion of production in places like Brazil and Russia, and the oil market doesn’t seem to be so sure a moneymaker these days – at least if have more than a handful of people in your country.

At its heart, then, the economic crisis besetting both North and South Sudan comes from the intertwining of their natural inability to get along with one another with their total dependence on a natural resource that, all things considered, is far less valuable than it used to be. Add in the fact that only cooperation will allow that resource to be used in the maximally efficient way and, well, you probably get the picture as to why both countries’ currencies are losing value faster than ice melts in the Sahara.

So, if you’re a businessman or woman looking to take advantage of the African growth story, take a word of advice and steer clear of Sudan, both North and South, for the time being, or at least until they’ve put their past behind them or developed an economy that is a bit more advanced than exporting oil in exchange for everything else. Unless, that is, you are a member of a multi-national oil conglomerate or government-backed weapons manufacturer with the resources needed to work successfully in such difficult countries. Even then, though, you’d be wise to ask for hard currency – up front – first.

Jeffrey Cavanaugh holds a Ph.D in political science with a specialization in international relations from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Formerly an assistant professor of political science and public administration at Mississippi State University, he writes on global affairs and international economics for AFK Insider, Mint Press News and BAM South.