Will Donald Trump beat the odds and become the comeback candidate? According to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst, this could be the case and he is telling investors to position themselves for the rising odds of Trump winning re-election.
Recently, bookmakers said Trump’s odds were increasing, getting a boost from the GOP convention. Now there are other factors working in his favor.
POTUS’s tough-on-crime approach and his criticism of the nationwide protests over police brutality and racial injustice has boosted his odds, said strategist Marko Kolanovic.
Based on past research, there could be a shift of five-to-10 points in polls from Democrats to Republicans if the perception of protests turns from peaceful to violent, Bloomberg reported.
“Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Kolanovic said. “Implications could be significant for the performance of factors, sectors, covid-19 winners/losers, as well as ESG.”
Kolanovic has been accurate on calls including the stock rally after Trump’s election and the rebound from covid-19-fueled lows earlier this year. Now he claims that the important drivers of the election include covid-19 pandemic developments.
Kolanovic suggested in June a Biden victory would lead to a weaker dollar, a fact that could weigh against him in the election. Then in July, Kolanovic and others said “Wall Street was too negative about a Biden win, primarily citing concerns about tax increases that may not affect earnings as much as some expect. They also noted that companies in areas like alternative energy and infrastructure might benefit from a Democrat victory, while those in areas like private prisons and defense might underperform,” Bloomberg reported.
JP Morgan isn’t the only company noting that Trump’s odds are improving.
Listen to GHOGH with Jamarlin Martin | Episode 73: Jamarlin Martin Jamarlin makes the case for why this is a multi-factor rebellion vs. just protests about George Floyd. He discusses the Democratic Party’s sneaky relationship with the police in cities and states under Dem control, and why Joe Biden is a cop and the Steve Jobs of mass incarceration.
According to betting website Smarkets, Trump and his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden are now virtually neck-and-neck for the first time in three months.
As of Sept. 2, the site’s betting market data gave Biden a 50 percent probability of winning the presidential election, and Trump trailed by just 1 percent at 49 percent, Odds Checker reported.
Again, the site noted that the protests were working in Trump’s favor.
“Growing civil unrest in Portland and Wisconsin over the summer has given Trump a chance to project his law-and-order stance, and he is seemingly turning the market back in his favor,” said Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets’ head of political markets.
