Former Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is now a betting favorite with close to a 21-point lead over Donald Trump — the biggest edge since Super Tuesday.
Biden has a 58.8 implied probability of winning vs. Trump’s 37.9 percent probability, according to Real Clear Politics betting odds data. RCP averaged betting odds data from eight betting exchanges to come up with the numbers.
According to a new national poll of registered voters by the New York Times and Siena College, Biden is ahead of Trump by 14 percentage points, garnering 50 percent of the vote compared with 36 percent for Trump. That’s among the most dismal showings of Trump’s presidency, and a sign that he is the underdog right now in his fight for a second term, New York Times reported.
A majority of survey respondents disapprove of how Trump is handling the coronavirus pandemic, systemic racism in the U.S. and the reopening of the economy.
Data from the U.K.-based betting exchange Smarkets mirror major polls that have consolidated in Biden’s favor ahead of the November vote, and other predictive sites have trended in Biden’s direction, Yahoo News reported. Conversely, Trump’s approval ratings are sinking to the lowest levels of his presidency.
“With coronavirus numbers rising in 22 states and Black Lives Matter protests across the country, Donald Trump’s presidency is being severely tested,” said Smarkets Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi.
Another predictive betting market, US Bookies found that Republicans are less likely to retain control of the Senate as Democratic candidates go on the offensive.
“Current data suggests that the Democrats have a strong chance of winning the majority of the Senate,” said US-Bookies betting industry analyst Alex Donohue. “With polls and betting odds also favoring Joe Biden in the 2020 election, we’re seeing Democrats make a strong push to take the majority.”
Just to keep things in perspective, Hillary Clinton was a heavy betting favorite to win the presidency on Nov. 8, 2016.
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On Nov. 1, 2016, renowned Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro railed against the fact that election betting is illegal in the U.S.
“The thing I’m most angry about, it’s very simple: the whole world is concerned about our next president, and we’re the only country who can’t book it,” Vaccaro told Fox News. “That’s a shame.”
With a week to go until the last presidential election, Clinton was a -400 favorite and Trump a +350 underdog. Asked to predict what would happen, Vaccaro said, “What I expect is, it’s politics. Chaotic. Insane. I don’t know where it’s going, and nobody else does either.”
