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Will Rebel Conflict Derail Mozambique’s Progressive Economy?

Will Rebel Conflict Derail Mozambique’s Progressive Economy?

According to All Africa, The Confederation of Mozambican Business Associations (CTA) is worried that military strategy could lead to a domino effect of economic loss starting on the local level.

Renamo rebel conflict and the government’s effort to combat attacks, the CTA says, will soon affect transactions costs and price inflation. According to All Africa, military convoys are occupying a main highway — two trucks watching in both directions.

“Any alteration in the political panorama is always reflected in the economy, and matters are worse if this alteration results from a conflict,” Kekobad Patel, CTA interim executive director said in the report.

Though no serious economic changes have been identified, the potential is still there, Patel warned. Now, the most important thing that the country should focus on is the ultimate impact of clashes — and foreign investment declines.

In 2012, Mozambique achieved 7.4 percent real GDP growth from the previous year, according to an African Economic Outlook report.

Before the Renamo rebel group recently settled in, the May 2013 economic analysis projected Mozambique’s 2013 real GDP growth to hit 8.5 percent and in 2014 move down gradually to 8 percent. In addition, a macroeconomic indication table suggested that consumer price index (CPI) would reach 6.5 percent this year while also dropping in 2014 to 5.7 percent.

If the worst fighting Mozambique has seen in 20 years continues, inflation percentage projections are expected to see increases.

“We need to generate employment to stabilize the country,” Patel added “and this can’t be done when the country is living through a situation of conflict.”

Also in 2012, Mozambique achieved its lowest inflation rates, which only spiked to 2.7 percent.