The coronavirus is highly contagious and capable of killing healthy people. “China has a history of not accurately reporting outbreaks, so it’s hard to know exactly what is happening,” says physician/scientist Dr. Dena Grayson. A Chinese family wearing face masks walk in a pedestrian crossing in Bangkok, Thailand, Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2020. Image: AP Photo/Gemunu Amarasinghe
Dr. Dena Grayson, who has years of training developing Ebola treatments, shares her concerns about this coronavirus.
Dr. Dena Grayson: Having years of experience developing an Ebola treatment, I was concerned about this Coronavirus Outbreak from the outset, because this coronavirus strain is very contagious, causes severe illness, and NO treatments or vaccines are available.
Dr. Dena Grayson: Unlike H5N1 “bird flu” (which does not spread easily between people) or SARS (which was spread by only a handful of “super spreaders”), this coronavirus does appear to spread easily between people, even after making the jump from an animal (this is not common).
Dr. Dena Grayson: In addition to being highly contagious, this novel coronavirus can cause a severe infection that can kill even healthy people. It’s rare to see both of these (bad) attributes in the same novel virus. Usually, it’s one or the other.
Dr. Dena Grayson: One way experts judge how deadly a pathogen (virus, bacteria, etc) is by the “case-fatality rate,” which is the # of deaths / # infected people. It’s way too early to know what this is, because it takes time for patients to succumb to the infection.
Dr. Dena Grayson: Thus far, the case-fatality rate appears to be ~4 percent…but it’s way too early to know what it really is, due to spotty reporting (both of deaths and cases), and because patients are still sick and could die tomorrow, next week, etc., even if no new infections occur.
Dr. Dena Grayson: Per @CDCgov, “Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood/animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread.” Now, many newly diagnosed patients have no connection to the market, supporting human-human spread = bad
Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov I get asked: “How will I know if I have the coronavirus?” Answer: it’s very hard to tell, because the symptoms are similar to having influenza — anywhere on the spectrum from a very bad cold to severe pneumonia with respiratory compromise.
Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov Although there are no specific treatments (medicines to combat the coronavirus) or vaccines, excellent supportive care, such as IV fluids, intubation (on a “breathing machine”), can help support patients while their immune system battles (and hopefully, defeats) the infection.
Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov In an “outbreak,” local hospitals can get overwhelmed, and there aren’t enough hospital beds, staff, ventilators (breathing machines). This appears to be the case in Wuhan, where authorities are working to build a 1000-bed (mobile) hospital in JUST 10 DAYS. This is alarming.
Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov China has a history of not accurately reporting outbreaks, so it’s hard to know exactly what is happening, especially with no free press, internet, etc. China’s massive response is very telling and strongly suggests that the Coronavirus Outbreak is very bad, especially in Wuhan
Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov How can you protect yourself and others? 1: Avoid contact with people who are visibly ill (even loved ones) 2: Stay home if you are sick 3: Cover your nose/mouth with a tissue (not hand) when coughing/sneezing 4: Don’t touch your face (difficult) 5: Wash your hands frequently
Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov Right now, the risk appears low in the U.S., with only a few isolated cases. Unfortunately, I expect that this will change, as more cases arise here, especially with global travel and how readily this coronavirus appears to spread (via droplets in the air).
Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov I will continue to provide commentary about the emerging Coronavirus as news emerges over time. In this Tweet link, you will find links to excellent @who and @CDCgov websites that track the Coronavirus Outbreak.
A 53-year-old fitness trainer died after checking into a hospital in Wuhan a little more than a week earlier, said his niece. His family had expected the death certificate to reflect the deadly coronavirus, because as his condition deteriorated, his doctors told his family he was suffering from an untreatable virus in his lungs.
Instead, it recorded “severe pneumonia” as the cause of death, she said. The relatives of two other people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this week also described similar situations, saying the causes of death had been given as “viral pneumonia.”
The relatives of all three said the deceased hadn’t been included in China’s official count of 41 deaths attributed to coronavirus.
The Beijing News newspaper reported this week that many patients weren’t officially labeled as carrying the new virus, even though their doctors and nurses said they were.
Ominous signs. Forbidden City (major tourist attraction) is now closed, and tours in Beijing are now canceled. I fear that Beijing soon may be locked down, joining at least 11 of the cities in China with a collective 50+ million people.
I just received an urgent new video uploaded by the Chinese doctor from the #coronavirus quarantine zone in Wuhan. I need your help with translation and it’s very important we get it right before it goes out to major media outlets. I’m posting it in 3 parts. (1 of 3) pic.twitter.com/qNxuP3tXuG
“The front line is much scarier than reported on TV. Much worse. Doctors estimate 1000, are infected. The government told us to cure these people but we have no supplies. There is nothing we can do. We just watch people die. I cannot take this anymore. Do not trust the government. You are on your own.”
Wow!
I cannot confirm the accuracy of that video. The stress does sound real. If the video is real, that nurse is going to be in serious trouble for the last statement even if her 100,000 count is fictional.
We now have two Ph.D.s, Chris Martenson whom I know personally as a straight shooter, and Dena Grayson whom I strongly believe is a straight shooter, sharing similar concerns.
Economic impact
A friend asked how this might play out economically speaking.
How it will and how it might and will are very different questions.
If the China videos I recently added to this post are accurate, this could be like the Spanish flu.
Alternatively, it could die out.
It could also be “contained” to China or Asia.
Those are vastly different scenarios.
Here is one setup on the Economic Impact of the 2003 SARS Outbreak.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died.
I cannot begin to calculate the Spanish Flu scenario.
“The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.”
That is extremely unlikely for many reasons including more knowledge of how viruses spread, better health care procedures, etc, but it is in the realm of possibilities.
5-point addendum
Don’t confuse highly unlikely with impossible
Don’t confuse possible with likely
The odds of a fast mutating virus are not zero
The odds of a mutation that results in very long incubation period are not zero
Those who claim “impossible” understand neither viruses or math.
Expect a lot of “I told you so” comments from those in group 5.
