Morgan Stanley’s Top Analyst Mike Wilson On What’s Next in Global Macro: Will U.S. Consumers Hold Up?

Kevin Mwanza
Written by Kevin Mwanza
Mike Wilson
Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, Mike Wilson, says that the U.S. GDP is still growing at a respectable 2 percent. Money photo created by jcomp – www.freepik.com

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, one of Wall Street’s most skeptical strategists, says that resilient consumer spending has helped the U.S. economy outperform the global economy, which has disappointed in the second half of 2019.

Wilson, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said the global economy had posted the worst performance since the global financial crisis with most purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) falling below 50.

“The global economy has disappointed most expectations this year, even ours, and it hasn’t just been China weakness. With 70 percent of PMIs around the world now below 50, we haven’t seen negative breadth like this since the global financial crisis,” Wilson said in a note to clients.

Wilson added that the “U.S. GDP has been slower than expected for the first half of the year, but still growing at a respectable 2 percent, thanks to a resilient U.S. consumer.”

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Mike Wilson predicts S&P 500 fall

Wilson has had impeccable timing of late. He predicted that the S&P 500 index would fall after coming close to a record high of 3,025.86. As indicated, it indeed pulled back and has failed to breach 3,000 points ever since.

“I’ve been steadfast in my call for a U.S. profits recession this year and skeptical of the big second-half recovery that company management teams promised back in the first quarter,” Wislon said.