Morgan Stanley Says S&P Will Retest 2018 lows, U.S. Economic Data To Get Worse
Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson is out with a new call for the market to test new lows with more disappointing economic data.
Here is a summary:
The S&P 500 reached our Bear Case (2400) late last year as we believe it embraced our earnings recession call. We expect upcoming negative data will prove 2600-2650 to be a good sale before a proper retest of the December lows. Wait for the retest and look to buy the
We always expected the S&P 500 to visit the low end of our consolidation range (2400-3000); however, we thought it would be in 1Q2019, not at the end of 2018.
While there was a confluence of technical factors that conspired to
create one of the worst Decembers in history, we also think the
Could our earnings recession turn into an economic one?
Risks are rising, and we don’t have a crystal ball, but we also don’t really care about such an outcome if it’s already priced. A few metrics we like to look at—y/y change in the S&P 500, PMIs, market implied pace of rate hikes (MSP0KE Index), front-end of the yield curve, and the Fed’s recession probability models—have all signaled elevated risk of an economic recession. From an equity perspective, we think a retest of the December lows driven by more earnings and economic data disappointments
would seal the deal on our earnings recession call. We are equity strategists, not economists, and we’ve said all along that an earnings recession amounts to the same thing as an economic one for investors.
Momentum: Defensive skew sending same message as the index
The long side of 3, 6, and 12-month momentum
We are seeing early signs that our margin thesis is playing out.
2019 EBIT margin estimates have contracted by ~50 basis points since the beginning of October 2018. This is the most significant negative revision during this period (beginning Oct.-beginning Jan.) since the