fbpx

Economy Is Foremost In SA’s Crucial Municipal Elections. Can ANC Hold Onto Power?

Economy Is Foremost In SA’s Crucial Municipal Elections. Can ANC Hold Onto Power?

South Africans voted today in municipal elections in what’s been dubbed a “Zuma referendum,” with opinion polls suggesting that the ruling African National Congress party could lose in some major cities for the first time since the end of apartheid 22 years ago.

Confidence has eroded in President Jacob Zuma and election results are expected to reflect this.

The economic hub of Johannesburg, the capital city of Pretoria and the coastal town of Port Elizabeth in the Eastern Cape Province (also known as Nelson Mandela Bay) are all predicted to be highly contested battlegrounds in the polls, African Business Magazine reported. These are urban areas previously regarded as safe for the ANC.

The ruling ANC has faced almost daily demonstrations as economic conditions deteriorate, with at least 12 deaths ahead of today’s elections, DW reported.

For the first time since it took power in 1994, the ANC could slip below 60 percent to 54 percent, and lose its majority in  Johannesburg, Pretoria and Port Elizabeth, according to an opinion poll released Tuesday by research company Ipsos, Bloomberg reported. No party is expected to exceed 50 percent of the vote in all three cities, meaning South Africa could be headed for a new era of coalition politics.

The polls were scheduled to close at 7 p.m., with final results expected to be announced on Aug. 6. A record 26.3 million people were registered to vote, with 200 parties fielding candidates for 257 councils.

“If the polls prove accurate, the election will usher in an era of more competitive politics in South Africa,” said Daniel Silke, director of Cape Town-based Political Futures Consultancy, in a Bloomberg interview Wednesday. “That will unsettle the ANC and may unleash a period of intense soul-searching in the party over leadership and policy. There is a lot riding on this.”

The ANC’s challenges include perceptions of failure — that the government failed to produce the jobs it promised, failed to address poverty and didn’t improve the standard of living. Unemployment is 27 percent, zero percent growth is anticipated in 2016 and South Africa’s credit rating could be cut to junk by S&P Global Ratings in December.

The ANC has been credited with extending access to welfare grants, clean water and housing. It is used to disproving myths about how little it has achieved, ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe said in a statement Monday.

“In every election our people disprove the myth that the ANC has not delivered,” Mantashe said. The reality is more about “massive improvements that have taken place in their lives since 1994. We are certain of victory.”

The incumbent ANC has a 1 billion rand ($71 million) campaign budget that’s bigger than all its rivals combined, Bloomberg reported.

Zuma’s presidency has been plagued by corruption scandals, disenchanting many ANC voters.

The centrist Democratic Alliance and radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters both hope to make significant gains.

The DA has spent significant campaign resources aimed at winning Johannesburg — potentially a symbolic blow to the ANC, African Business Magazine reported. The election is the first major test for DA leader Mmusi Maimane and will be an important indicator of his appeal to working-class black voters.

The election will also be a proving ground for Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters. The radical party wants to redistribute white land and promotes public ownership of the mines. It is targeting Limpopo province and wants to gain council seats in major urban areas. An ENCA poll suggests that the party could win 9 percent of the national vote.

Many voters in South Africa feel loyalty for the ANC but not for Zuma, DW reported. Zuma has been accused of more than 700 counts of corruption, including paying for upgrades to his private KwaZulu-Natal home, Nkandla, with public money.

After months of legal maneuvering, the country’s Constitutional Court ordered Zuma to repay the inflated costs of home improvements at his Nkandla home, ruling that Zuma had violated the constitution by ignoring public protector Thuli Madonsela.

Zuma also had to deal with accusations that he had inappropriate personal ties with the Guptas, a powerful Indian business family.

In December, respect plummeted for Zuma after he fired Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene, replacing him with a little-known member of parliament, then recruited Pravin Gordhan for the job.

The ANC is likely to still get support in rural areas of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and Orange Free State provinces, DW reported. Older black South Africans are expected to stay loyal to the party despite its problems.

In the Diepsloot township, retired seamstress Dorothy Mavuso, 81, said she’s with the ANC forever.

“I am voting for my children and their children and their children, and there is only one party that can help us get money and jobs: the ANC,” said Mavuso, who lined up to vote at daybreak. “I will never change my vote. Never.”

The ANC believes it will keep control of all major municipalities it currently holds.

The independent Ipsos opinion poll agreed that the ANC is likely to stay put in Pretoria and Johannesburg despite growing opposition, but will likely lose Port Elizabeth.

Even if the election goes the ANC’s way, many question whether the ANC can survive in the long run under Zuma’s leadership, which ends in 2019 under a constitutional two-term limit.