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Opinion: In The South Africa-Nigeria Rivalry, South Africa Is Winning

Opinion: In The South Africa-Nigeria Rivalry, South Africa Is Winning

From WorldPoliticsReview. Story by James Hamill, lecturer in politics and international relations, University of Leicester, U.K.

While the thaw in relations is welcome news, it is questionable whether it can be developed into the much closer relationship to which each state formally aspires.

A number of issues stand in the way. First, although the tension between South Africa and Nigeria frequently finds expression in policy differences, it is actually rooted in an underlying—if unspoken—geopolitical rivalry and the struggle for primacy in African politics, a contest in which neither side is prepared to yield to the other. South Africa is currently ascendant in this contest, as it enjoys sole African membership in the BRICS and G-20 forums. Nigeria has been left disputing South Africa’s right to represent Africa in those organizations and demanding an equal level of esteem.

Second, while Nigeria replaced South Africa as Africa’s largest economy in 2014, the South African economy, despite its troubles, is the more diverse and sophisticated. That’s evident in the range of South African companies active across Africa, with 120 operating in Nigeria alone, generating employment and boosting local economies. But these businesses also attract criticism and resentment for their supposedly aggressive and expansionist approaches, which are seen as stifling local manufacturing.

This resentment was captured by the huge $3.9 billion fine Nigeria imposed upon MTN, the South African mobile phone giant, for failing to discontinue unregistered Nigerian subscribers. An orderly resolution of that issue will be the first test of the new relationship. Other South African companies have complained of harassment over the past year and have said they plan to leave Nigeria. These disputes will continue to flare up as long as the relationship remains so lopsided.

For now détente has been restored between Africa’s two powerhouses, although the expectations for revamped diplomacy need to be realistic. This process will be acutely vulnerable to further outbreaks of xenophobia in South Africa, to the erratic relationship between South African companies and the Nigerian state, and to any other political or economic issues that have a bearing on the dynamics of their wider geopolitical struggle. Even the very use of the term détente suggests a relationship defined by suspicion and hostility, albeit tempered by realpolitik. The mood may have improved, but a strategic partnership still remains a long way off.

Read more at WorldPoliticsReview.