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Africa’s Commodities Slump Reveals Hotspots Of Investment

Africa’s Commodities Slump Reveals Hotspots Of Investment

By Konstantin Makarov  | From Venture Burn

When the International Monetary Fund slashed sub-Saharan Africa’s growth projections this spring, it seemed that the continent’s brief day in the sun had come to an end. The IMF downgraded the growth forecast from 5.8 percent to 4.5 percent in May and again to 3.8 percent in September.

The move came as no surprise, given decreased momentum in major markets such as Nigeria, where growth slowed to a paltry 2.3 percent in the year’s second quarter. The South African economy underwent a 1.3 percent contraction during the same period. This dismal news sparked speculation that a recession was ahead, and investors began to fear an economic contagion that would spread to other regional economies.

But Africa’s commodities slump draws back the curtain on its more diverse investment opportunities, such as the growing information and communication technology and financial technology markets in a number of countries. Infrastructure projects in Uganda’s rail industry, Eritrea’s shipping sector, and Kenya’s real estate market indicate burgeoning investment hot spots. The anemic performances of the developed African economies should inspire investors to examine the robust possibilities in these and other emerging markets.

Pockets of Resilience

Africa boasts a number of growing economies, though some are more stable and investment-ready than others. The following three markets are poised for exponential growth in the next several years:

Ghana

This country of nearly 27 million defies rumors of an ailing economy. Ghana’s GDP was up 4.1 percent in the first quarter of 2015, compared with a 3.8 percent contraction at the same time last year. The country’s fiscal deficit decreased from 2.1 to one percent during the same period, a change spurred by government reforms such as slashed fuel subsidies. This news should reassure investors, especially after the country’s energy crisis exacerbated an already struggling business sector in 2014.

The ICT market here presents especially lucrative opportunities because Ghana’s business process outsourcing sector will set the standard for the rest of Africa. The 2016 general election should generate further interest because it approaches amid demands for solutions to a strained economic environment.

Rwanda

Forecasts show Rwandan economic growth between seven and 7.5 percent this year, thanks to budgetary support from its development partners. Rwanda’s industrial market harbors particularly interesting possibilities because many investors view the country as a gateway to the vastly untapped market in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Ethiopia

This sub-Saharan nation is emerging as the continent’s manufacturing hub because of low production costs and fast-growing income levels (though starting at a low base). It’s already attracted multinationals, such as Jordan’s Hikma Pharmaceuticals and the Chinese shoe corporation Huajian, and will likely draw more investment in 2016.

Read more at Venture Burn