fbpx

Africa To Grow At The Slowest Rate Since The Global Financial Crisis

Africa To Grow At The Slowest Rate Since The Global Financial Crisis

Africa is likely to grow at the slowest rate in nearly a decade as falling global commodity prices, an economic slowdown in China — the region’s largest trade partner — and reduced investor interest in frontier markets take a toll on many countries.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund  (IMF) expect the region to grow by 3.8 percent and 3.7 percent respectively in 2015, the slowest rate since the global financial crisis of 2009.

“The anticipated 2015 growth in GDP marks the lowest growth rate in Sub-Saharan Africa since 2009, and falls below the robust annual 6.5 percent growth in GDP that the region sustained in 2003-2008,” the World Bank noted in a statement.

African countries that demand on commodity exports such as oil, gold, platinum, coffee, cocoa and tea to run their economies have come under pressure since the last quarter of last year after the US started its quantitative easy program.

Most currencies on the continent have fallen to their record lows against a globally stronger US dollar and other major currencies. Anticipation the US could start raising interest rates  for the first time since the financial crisis of 2009 could see African currencies fall even further.

African top oil exporters Nigeria and Angola are likely to be hit hard, according to the IMF’s latest Word Economic Outlook [pdf].

Net oil importing countries on the continent, such as Tanzania, Ethiopia, Ivory coast, Mozambique and Rwanda where investment in infrastructure and consumer spending remain healthy, could still grow at a steady rate of over seven percent between 2015-17.

The World Bank, however predict that sub-Saharan Africa growth could pick up in 2017 to about 4.8 percent as oil prices recover and other sector, other than commodities, pick up pace in these African economies.

“The good news is that domestic demand generated by consumption, investment, and government spending will nudge economic growth upwards to 4.4 percent in 2016, and to 4.8 percent in 2017,” said Punam Chuhan-Pole, Acting Chief Economist, World Bank Africa Region and Author of Africa’s Pulse.