Michael Jennings | From World Politics Review

With President Jakaya Kikwete due to step down next month after his constitutionally limited two terms, all eyes in Tanzania have been on the succession. For the past 18 months, two front-runners representing opposing factions within the ever-fractious ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party, or CCM, have dominated headlines: former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa and former Foreign Minister Bernard Membe.

But in a surprise in July, the CCM, which has ruled Tanzania since its independence in 1961, selected Minister of Public Works John Magufuli as its official presidential candidate. Lowassa, who had attracted the ire of CCM bigwigs for starting his campaign early and had raised concerns over his implication in a corruption scandal that led to his resignation as prime minister in 2008, was left off the final shortlist of candidates.

Stung by his exclusion, Lowassa, in another twist, quit the party and joined forces with Chadema, one of Tanzania’s four main opposition parties that had come together to run as a coalition in the Oct. 25th elections. Then, in early August, the opposition coalition rallied around its own surprise single presidential candidate: Lowassa. The shuffling has raised questions about the strength and state of the CCM and hopes for the opposition ahead of what looks to be a closely contested election.

With few real policy differences between its candidates, the CCM selected Magufuli for two main reasons. First, he was not linked to either of its two main factions and played no role in the infighting that has done so much to divide the party over the past few years. He was seen as the best hope for unifying the CCM in the face of a potential stronger challenge from the opposition.

Second, by choosing someone untainted by past corruption scandals, the party hoped that international donors, who have in recent years put pressure on the state to do more to tackle graft, would be persuaded that it is getting serious about doing so. Of course, both Kikwete and his predecessor, Benjamin Mkapa, started their terms with similar promises to prosecute officials and root out corruption.

Despite internal divisions, the relative weakness of Kikwete and the consequent lack of his government’s direction, especially during his second term, the CCM remains a powerful and genuinely popular party. It has considerable strength in rural areas, and in last December’s local elections it won 77 percent of the votes.

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