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How Long Before Rating Agencies Downgrade Nigeria To ‘Junk’?

How Long Before Rating Agencies Downgrade Nigeria To ‘Junk’?

Nigeria is facing a higher risk of its credit rating falling into junk after the Africa’s largest oil producer was ejected from JPMogan Emerging Markets Bond Index, the largest in the world, last week.

Standard & Poor’s and Fitch rating are scheduled to review their outlook on the west African nation In the wake of the JPMorgan expulsion.

Already Fitch has withdrawn Nigeria’s Rivers State rating “due to lack of information”, the rating agency said on Friday.

“Fitch is the one people will be watching most closely,” Alan Cameron, an economist at Exotix Partners LLP in London, told Bloomberg.

Analysts expect Fitch, which has Nigeria at BB-,  to lower its rating to B+. S & P Is still waiting to see if President Muhammadu Buhari will constitute a cabinet soon before it reviews its rating.

Nigeria’s economy, which became Africa’s largest economy in April 2014 after rebasing, came under pressure last year after oil prices fell on the international markets cutting its largest source of revenue by more than half.

The country’s central bank governor, Godwin Emefiele, defended  the west African nation last week saying he did not understand what basis JPMorgan used to kick its bond from the index.

“JPMorgan raised two issues, liquidity and transparency,” he told the Financial Times on Thursday.

“But there [remains] a range in the volume of liquidity from between $350m to almost $400m daily, and that has never been a problem. And we’ve also addressed the issue of transparency. So I don’t really know what the issues are.”

In January, S&P downgraded Russia’s sovereign credit rating to ‘junk’ after the rouble plummeted due to western nations sanctions over its involvement in Ukraine and falling oil prices globally, something that threatened the country’s economic growth prospects.

Last week, it also downgraded Brazil’s economy to ‘junk’ over recession concerns, The Street reported.

Nigeria has followed almost a similar trend like Russia and Brazil and is now facing a worse fiscal crisis as oil prices remain subdued and its local currency, the naira, keep depreciating despite the ‘currency crushing rules’ introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria that have dried liquidity in the money markets.

“If Nigeria is thrown to junk status, then bond yields will rise higher sending lending rates even higher than it currently is. This is also likely going to depreciate the naira [further],” Naira Metrics said in an opinion piece earlier this year.

“The effects is unthinkable!”