fbpx

Frontier Markets: The Looming Recession In Nigeria

Frontier Markets: The Looming Recession In Nigeria

By Peter Kohli | From Nasdaq

I held out for a while on commenting in order to give the new president of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, a chance to start tackling one of that country’s most important matters: the economy. This Saturday will mark his 100th day in office, a benchmark by which leaders of countries are often measured, and the verdict is, at best, mixed.

Yes, he has begun to tackle corruption, which is excellent news, and widespread terrorism, which is admirable; however, of equal importance is the economy, and here he has done nothing. He has not even formed a cabinet yet. No ministers have been appointed to create policy. Ever since the collapse of the oil market, Nigeria, which depends almost entirely on the sale of that commodity for its revenue, has struggled to regain its economic footing. This was one of the reasons Mr. Buhari was elected.

An article from International Business Times titled, “Buhari 100 Days In Office: Nigerian President Tackles Corruption, Boko Haram But Not Economy,” states, “‘This has been viewed in a disappointing light, as the president was expected to be a more decisive leader than his predecessor,’ Ronak Gopaldas, a sovereign risk analyst at South Africa’s Rand Merchant Bank, told AFP news agency Thursday. ‘As a president who campaigned on a message of change, especially security and corruption, the big elephant in the room remains the economy, and clarity in this regard is sorely lacking.’”

This is indeed distressing because the economy of Nigeria is worsening by the day and now appears to be heading into a deep recession. Any gains made by the Nigerian Stock Market in anticipation of a new era of government have been lost. The Nigerian currency, the Naira, has managed to remain stable only with the help of the Central Bank, which has been selling dollars to prop up the currency. Nigeria’s GDP in the second quarter of 2015 came in at 2.57%, but that is lower by 1.61% from the preceding quarter and 4.19% lower than the corresponding quarter in 2014. It is essential that President Buhari begin putting policies in place to prevent the otherwise inevitable looming recession.

The only Nigerian focused ETF, the Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF, is one of the worst performing country focused ETFs on the market and cannot be considered as an investment at this stage.

After a peaceful transition of power, which in some people’s minds was unexpected, the least the population deserves in return is an efficient and effective government to take charge of the economy. That’s not asking for a lot, is it?

Read more at Nasdaq