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Kenya’s Bond Market Lull Creates An Opportunity For Dollar Investors

Kenya’s Bond Market Lull Creates An Opportunity For Dollar Investors

Investor are shying away from investing in Kenya’s bond market as a rout on the local currency persists making yields on long-term debt securities unattractive, but some analysts are saying this is the best time for investors to get in.

According to a Reuters report, the east African country, which has one of the most vibrant debt markets on the continent, short-term government debts are giving investors higher rates than longer-term bonds which has made the bond market less attractive.

A un-named Nairobi-based fixed income traders told Reuters investors were “having trouble exiting” their positions something that could hurt the market in the future as new bond buyers will be cautious when buying in an illiquid market.

“It might cost us in the future,” the trader said.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley however say that despite Kenyan local bonds losing money for dollar investors over the last quarter, the market is ripe for investment.

Michael Kafe, an economist at Morgan Stanley, told Bloomberg in a July 1 report that  there was “no better time to be in Kenya than now.”

“They’ve got all those big capital-expenditure programs coming up. In the next three to five years they’re going to be a producer and likely an exporter of oil and that changes the economy completely,” he added.

Kenya’s central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate twice in the last couple of months to 11.50 percent as it tightened its monetary stance to stem depreciation in the shilling.

The regulator has also raised interest rates on its short-term money market tools to make it expensive for banks to hold long dollar positions.

Alex Muiruri, a fixed income analyst at Africa alliance, told Reuters that the secondary bonds’ market had “taken a back seat” for a while.